隨著新年度的腳步越來越近，國內棉紗的疲弱行情也是愈演愈烈。并且有很多棉紡廠老板認為，下年度市場價格重心仍會有較大幅度下滑。8月下旬之后，紡企觀望情緒更濃了，大家都在等，一是等直補細則落地，二是等行情“落停”。

　　國產紗走貨遲滯，價格續跌。8月26日，山東某企業普梳32S價格24900元/噸，40S價格26200元/噸，分別較25日下跌100元/噸、300元/噸。負責人介紹，為留住老客戶，價格仍有200元/噸商談余地。“訂單太少了，看著庫存**天上漲，心里壓力很大。”這位負責人正在為他即將“爆倉”的庫存擔憂，只能通過不斷降價吸引客戶采購。8月份以來，他們企業已下調了兩次報價，下調幅度在400-600元/噸，但訂單未見明顯增加。據企業反映，近期除少數低支氣流紡銷售尚可之外，其它棉紗的銷售情況都不好。

　　進口紗出貨不易，貿易商打起價格戰。據貿易商介紹，截至8月26日，寧波港A級印巴紗報價24100元/噸，實際成交價23900元/噸，越南紗23600元/噸，實際成交價23400元/噸，個別成交價23200元/噸，大家為去庫存已爭得“頭破血流”，但銷售仍然滯緩。市場估計，目前青島港、上海港、寧波港、廣州等港口進口紗庫存已達7.5-8.0萬噸，較上月增加1.0-1.5萬噸。

　　目前直補細則未公布，但這限制不了業界的豐富想象，他們一致認為：新棉價格肯定比拋儲價格低，質量肯定比儲備棉好。8月中下旬，湖北、新疆棉區已有棉企開秤，籽棉價格在3.50元/斤左右，折皮棉成本在152 0173 3840-14700元/噸，預計銷售價格在15200-15500元/噸，這與之前業界預測價格相差不大。新棉以此價格上市，應該說讓紡企看到了下年度棉價的“底牌”。

　　原料成本價格下滑，棉紗價格繼續下滑幾乎板上釘釘。由于國家連續三年收儲，目前國內市場除國儲棉外幾乎沒有可用之棉，加之今年內地棉花或將大幅減產，而新疆棉可能要到10月底才能運輸出疆到達內地紡織廠，如果再要求入庫公檢后憑公檢報告安排運出，那么還要延遲15天左右。也就是說，從8月31日拋儲結束直至10月底的50-60天時間里，棉花市場供應處于“真空期”，這段時間棉價或保持略低于17250元/噸的拋儲價而又高于新棉大量上市后的15000元/噸左右的價格，棉紗價格下跌或有一個緩沖期，或許這是紡企加緊去高成本庫存的好機會。

　　綜上所述，下年度市場利空因素較多，好在目前棉紗市場一直在提前消化利空，因此下年度棉紗價格下行或將是“軟著陸”，但企業應警惕“溫水煮青蛙”，提前做好準備工作。

With the new year is approaching, the market is also increasingly weak domestic cotton yarn. And there are a lot of cotton spinning factory boss thinks, next year the market price was still there will be a big drop. In late August, textile enterprises wait-and-see sentiment strong, everyone is waiting, a direct subsidy rules landing, two is the market "or stopped".

Domestic yarn shipment delay, prices continued to fall. In August 26th, a Shandong enterprise carding 32S price 24900 yuan / ton, 40S price 26200 yuan / ton, compared to the 25 day down 100 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton. The person in charge, to retain old customers, the price is still 200 yuan / ton about. "The order is too small, watching the stock rise day by day, feel great pressure." The responsible person is worried about his upcoming "critical" inventory, only through the continuous price to attract customers purchasing. Since August, they have cut the enterprises offer two times, down in the range of 400-600 yuan / ton, but no significant increase in orders. According to reflect recent enterprises, except for a few low air spinning sales, sales of other cotton yarn are not good.

Import yarn shipment is not easy, traders playing the price war. According to traders, as of August 26th, Ningbo port a Pakistan yarn price 24100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price of 23900 yuan / ton, Vietnam yarn 23600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price of 23400 yuan / ton, individual transaction price of 23200 yuan / ton, we go to the inventory has been for "head broken and bleeding", but sales are still slow. Market estimates, at present Qingdao port, Shanghai port, Ningbo port, Guangzhou Port imported yarn inventory has reached 7.5-8.0 million tons, an increase from the previous month 1.0-1.5 million tons.

The direct subsidy rules not released, but the rich imagination which do not limit the industry, they agreed that: cotton price is more than the cast store the price is low, quality is certainly better than cotton reserves. 8 months late, Hubei, Xinjiang region has cotton enterprises balance, seed cotton price in 3.50 yuan / jins, folded cotton cost in 152 0173 3840-14700 yuan / ton, expected sales prices in the 15200-15500 yuan / ton, this is before the industry forecast price difference. The new cotton this price listed, should say to see next year cotton spinning enterprises "".

The cost of raw materials prices decline, cotton prices continued to decline almost That's final. Because the country for three consecutive years of storage, the current domestic market in addition to cotton storage has almost no usable cotton, cotton or mainland and this year will be significantly reduced, and Xinjiang may to the end of 10 to transport out of Xinjiang at inland textile factory, if required by public inspection report in judiciary after an exhausted, then need to delay 15 days. That is to say, from August 31st until the end of 10 at the end of throwing storage 50-60 days, the cotton market in the "vacuum", this time prices or slightly less than 17250 yuan / ton cast store the price and above showed a large number of listed after the 15000 yuan / ton price, cotton prices dropped or a buffer period, perhaps this is a good opportunity to go to the textile enterprise high cost of inventory.

To sum up, more the next year the market bad factors, at present the cotton market has been ahead of time to digest the bad, so the next year cotton prices down or will be "soft landing", but the enterprise should guard against the "warm boiled frog", prepared in advance.