Because the market has not yet been released direct subsidy rules as bearish, yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures 152 0173 3840 main contract Powei down, hit a low of the past five years.

Market participants expect the new year, at present state of cotton subsidies is expected to be no lower limit, Zheng cotton under no policy support; in addition to the global cotton for fourth consecutive years of excess supply, and China forming massive inventory, make Zheng cotton downward pressure is great.

Zheng Mian Wan Si pass below

Yesterday, Zheng cotton 152 0173 3840 contract fell sharply, opened at 14210 yuan / ton, to close at 14905 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day down 345 yuan / ton, a decline of 2.42%, turnover increased substantially, from 202688 to 483108 hand in hand, positions increased 42826 to 446524 hand in hand. Outer disc, American cotton last Friday fell slightly, the December contract closed at 66.47 cents, to close at 66.57 cents, down 1 cents, or 0.02%.

And since August 4th, 152 0173 3840 contract since the five year low of 14010 yuan to reemerge, once the sixth yang. However, many times in the upside of the 15000 yuan / ton mark integer process, long losing confidence, in August 14th, the agreement on the exploration to 14980 yuan after the concussion, and several leading domestic goods for fourth consecutive months of decline, overcast. And here is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures to stabilize stabilized, the main contract in December August rose a cumulative 5.89%.

According to another Mandarin financial reports, the imported cotton prices low impact, and consumer end slump dilemma, since November 28, 2013 to start the reserve cotton on the progress of poor, even CCTA April onwards will be the standard grade cotton auction reserve price by 18000 yuan / ton down to 17250 yuan / ton, to pay rate is still not very optimistic. With the near end and throwing storage Xinmian listing time node, starting in late May, cotton reserves turnover ratio maintained at below 20%, even the existence of individual trading day to drop to a number of embarrassing situation.

However, the huge inventories still stunned the bull. Expected national cotton market monitoring system, 2014/2015 annual domestic cotton ending inventory consumption ratio is 177.15%, the highest. The store cotton Corporation news shows, since 2011 the cumulative and annual about 16400000 tons of cotton, cotton reserves amounted to about 8200000 tons of homework.

"Straight up" was interpreted as partial empty

Domestic cotton market this week will officially enter the 2014/2015, and the detailed rules for the implementation of the new Xinjiang cotton price target subsidies pilot has not been announced, the Bulls especially be very upset. It is reported, rumors current compared before more consistent, the new state of cotton subsidies is expected to be no lower limit, Zheng cotton under no policy support.

From the China cotton information network news, reflected from the side part details are emerging.

First of all, Xinjiang corps cotton subsidies for reference according to the output, the Xinjiang autonomous region is 60% according to the area, in accordance with the yield of 40%. Secondly, the amount of subsidies temporarily not set a clear upper limit argument, but the total amount of subsidies will calculate according to the yield of cotton. Once again, the bottom price, rumors have multiple versions. But most think that, in the process of market regulation Chinese home in order to improve the effectiveness of the policy, more inclined to let the market play a decisive role, in the allocation of resources to fluctuate in line with market conditions, the government will not easily early intervention in the market. Inside and outside mianjia difference and cotton farmers sell cotton to will become the government to consider the premise of hand. Fourth, during the period from September to November will be the target price subsidies during the recovery period of seed cotton price. It is understood, at present Chinese Cotton Association and related departments have already do layout work of price monitoring. Finally, the market rumors Xinjiang will be ginning factory authorized, authorized qualified enterprises can participate in the target price subsidies to purchase qualifications, farmers only get subsidies through authorized ginning factory sold to, cotton ginning factory requires the cotton into the supervision warehouse. The market is more concerned if ginning factory not in supervision warehouse directly to the cotton sold out, will affect the Xinjiang transportation subsidy application; in addition, countries or through some ways to encourage cotton ginners will cotton stored in the warehouse, but also by some measures to restrain the behavior of cotton ginning factory.

The spot market, from Shandong cotton enterprises related person in charge, at present, from Xinmian listed a large area is getting closer. And cotton storage cost high, poor quality, selling to form bright contrast is, the new cotton with its good quality, low price advantage is in favor of textile enterprises. Nevertheless, cotton reserves put transactions cautious characteristics, the same transmission to the market to buy a new aspect. In the cotton price prior to the announcement, the main cotton prices, cotton ginning factory, textile enterprises, cotton city generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, dare not rashly balance.

But there are also people said, whether direct subsidy rules exactly what kind of mode later released, is expected to have mutual support policy rules to improve the direct subsidy policy. In throwing storage after the end of the "vacuum", Zheng cotton disk may present the transient impulse, cotton related enterprises can real-time attention, to seize the right time to sell.

Editor's note: this year the state officially launched in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia Xinjiang soybean, cotton price target subsidies pilot, took the key ice pricing mechanism reform of agricultural products in China a step. It is understood, Guangxi and Yunnan in Hubei Province, the main producing areas of sugar, rapeseed, cotton and soybeans is expected to become the two kinds of agricultural products after the implementation of the target price subsidies pilot. At present, cotton, soybean mature soon, target price subsidies pilot specific implementation details but didn't fall to the ground, all kinds of rumors caused by uncertain factors in the dancing in the market, "the people did not know" turning to

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